On Probability

Posted by in e-Dicts

What exactly is the message of the Church?

The Church believes in one thing and one thing only – the universe is infinite*.

If you can truly accept that as fact, you must consider that in an infinite universe, given enough time anything is Possible. Of course, most things are Highly Improbable.

For example, evolution. The amount of Probability needed to overcome the trillions of Possibilities that could at any moment in history have completely wiped the planet Earth out of existence is huge. In fact, it’s infinitely huge. Yet maybe, just maybe, it happened.

In an infinite universe, it could happen.

And yet, if everything is Possible, where are the flying cars? Where is God? Where are my socks?

Possibility does not overcome feasibility, nor does it take into account the cost of the thing in question taking place. The cost may be fiscal, but more likely it would be an energy cost. 99.999% of the time, even if a thing is Possible the energy required to undertake the thing is massively disproportionate to the benefit of the thing happening. Time travel for instance, would require such a huge energy cost and possibly even cost human life, which (currently) precludes one from travelling any large amount of time forward, and even less backward.

The Church exists merely to focus the layman on the fact that anything truly is Possible, and therefore decision-making should be based not on emotion, nor supposed fact, but instead on simple Probability. True Chians learn how to foresee multiple paths, Possible futures – and discount and avoid the Highly Improbable. This leads to a positive Good Times Quotient, which is the only true goal of a Chian.


*Technically the Church doesn’t even believe that, but we have to start from somewhere.

Post a Reply

468 ad